This Year’s Tax Collections Are Expected to be $351 Million below Original Estimate
A new state report about projected state revenue and the agency budget requests reinforces concerns that the upcoming 2017-19 Wisconsin budget will be another difficult one to balance. The primary problem is that tax revenue growth is well below the level anticipated when the budget bill was enacted in July 2015.
I’ll get to the specific numbers in a moment, but the bottom line is that the state’s large tax cuts, coupled with lower-than-anticipated job gains and revenue growth, mean that as state policymakers develop the next state budget they are going to have to either continue to squeeze spending or close some tax loopholes. Read more
The Combined Effects of Two New Budget Reports Create Significant Fiscal Challenges
New tax collection numbers released yesterday are the second dose of worrisome budget news in Wisconsin this week. Right on the heels of a report showing that the budget balance was well below the anticipated level after the close of the 2015-16 fiscal year, new tax collection figures reveal that revenue fell well short of the projected level during the first quarter of the current fiscal year.
Taken together, the two documents released this week indicate that it could be very challenging to finish the 2016-17 fiscal year in the black. Read more
Despite Delay in Debt Payments, Budget Remains Very Tight
An annual budget report issued yesterday has a little bit of good news for the state, but also disappointing news. The bottom line is that the state’s budget balance grew this year, but by less than the budget bill was counting on. As a result, it could be difficult to keep this year’s budget in the black if tax revenue continues to fall short of the expected level. [See the update below about the new tax collection figures.]
The new Annual Fiscal Report shows that Wisconsin finished the 2015-16 fiscal year with a balance of almost $314 million. Although that’s pretty good news, it’s also a bit disappointing because even though the balance grew by $87 million this year, the budget bill had assumed the state would have about $77 million more in its balance at the end of the 2015-16 fiscal year. Read more
Wisconsin prisons are over capacity and cannot house the additional inmates that incarcerated under a new law toughening penalties for repeat drunk driving, according to state officials. To address the lack of space, the Department of Corrections recently proposed spending $40 million over the next two years to expand contracts with local governments to house state prisoners. The new costs should spur lawmakers to take a hard look at corrections costs and implement strategies proven to reduce prison populations as well as the costs to taxpayers and communities.
Earlier this year, state lawmakers passed a law increasing the severity of the offense of the fourth and subsequent instances of driving while intoxicated. The change means that more people will be sent to prison for repeat instances of drunk driving; the Department of Corrections estimates the new law will increase the number of inmates in the state prison system by 458 inmates at the end of 2017, and by 1,205 inmates at the end of 2018. Read more
Counties in rural northeast Wisconsin send as many people to prison for their size as the urban counties in southeast Wisconsin, according to newly-released figures on prison admissions. High prison admission rates from some rural Wisconsin counties are part of a national pattern in which people from small counties are as likely or more likely to go to prison than people from large counties.
Milwaukee County sends more people to prison for the size of its population than any other Wisconsin county, with 26.4 prison admissions in 2014 per 10,000 residents, according to an analysis in the New York Times. But some rural counties in northeast Wisconsin send almost as many people to prison for their size as Milwaukee County. The five counties with the next highest prison admission rates after Milwaukee County are:
- Forest County, with 26.3 prison admissions per 10,000 residents;
- Marinette County, 25.4 prison admissions per 10,000 residents;
- Kenosha County, 25.2 prison admissions per 10,000 residents;
- Racine County, 24.4 prison admissions per 10,000 residents; and
- Langlade County, 22.2 prison admissions per 10,000 residents.
Disappointing Tax Collections Could Cut into the State’s Small Reserves
State policymakers got some disappointing budget news this week, when the Department of Revenue (DOR) released state tax collection figures late Thursday. The revenue shortfall doesn’t pose imminent budget problems, and I’m somewhat relieved that the shortfall wasn’t larger, but the drop in the 2015-16 tax revenue might pose a problem in the second half of our biennial budget, particularly if the drop is repeated this year.
The new DOR figures show that revenue growth for the last fiscal year (ending on June 30) was $85 million (0.6%) short of the amount projected by the Legislative Fiscal Bureau (LFB) back in January. That January estimate had already been lowered by $29 million below the amount anticipated when the 2015-17 budget bill was enacted a little over a year ago. Read more
Wisconsin is leaner in most types of public sector jobs than all but a few other states, according to a review of employment figures by Governing.
Only three states have fewer public workers working in areas other than education than Wisconsin, according to the analysis. For every 10,000 state residents, Wisconsin has 199 public non-education employees. That’s less than half the number of public employees per population in Wyoming, which had the most public employees for its population size, and 50% less than the number of public employees per population in New York, Mississippi, and Alaska. Only three states had a smaller number of public employees than Wisconsin for their population size.
Wisconsin also ranked relatively low in payroll costs. For every $100,000 in personal income, Wisconsin governments spent $202 in March 2014 for non-education public employees. Only 11 states have lower payroll costs as a share of personal income. Read more
Governor Walker’s public statements and his instructions to state agencies on how to develop their proposals for Wisconsin’s next state budget give some glimpses into what the state’s 2017-19 budget might bring.
Wisconsin has a two-year budget. The process of deciding what to include in the budget starts in the summer of even numbered years — in other words, now — when the Governor instructs state agencies how to develop budget requests. Agencies submit their requests to the Governor in September, and the Governor takes the requests into consideration when developing his own budget proposal to submit to the Legislature. The Governor is expected to release his budget proposal in the early part of 2017. (For more about the Wisconsin state budget cycle, check the Wisconsin Budget Project’s Budget Toolkit.)
Reduced Participation Provides Opportunity and Reason to Streamline Enrollment Procedures
Members of the legislature’s Joint Finance Committee got some very good news last Friday in the form of a quarterly report on the state Medicaid budget from the Wisconsin Department of Health Services (DHS). The letter from the interim Secretary of DHS indicates that the agency now estimates that Medicaid spending during the 2015-17 biennium will be $418.6 million below the amount lawmakers anticipated when they passed the budget bill a year ago.
The portion of Medicaid spending specifically from state General Purpose Revenue (GPR) is projected to be almost $176 million (3.1%) less than the budget bill set aside. That’s an improvement of $90.6 million GPR since the last projection was made three months ago.
These numbers from DHS are very good news at a time when state revenue projections haven’t been very good. The reduced growth in Medicaid spending improves the prospects for keeping the total state budget in the black – without resorting to additional remedial measures (beyond the delay in debt payments that the Governor already implemented). Read more
Wisconsin got a very positive jobs report last week, but the apparent good news from the preliminary May data did not carry over to last month’s tax collections. As a result, the state may finish the current fiscal year well below the revenue target included in the budget bill – creating a more precarious situation in the second half of the 2015-17 biennial budget.
The Department of Revenue released the May tax collections figures at about 4:00 on Friday, June 17. As is often the case when those numbers are released late on a Friday, the news wasn’t good. The new DOR figures show the following:
- Tax collections fell by $17.5 million (1.5%) in May, relative to the amount in May 2015.
- Although sales tax collections increased by $25 million compared to the same month of 2015, individual income tax revenue dropped by 6.3% ($31.5 million) last month, and corporate income tax revenue was off by $8.5 million (almost 35%).