A tax break that has cost far more than originally anticipated has resulted in enormous tax breaks for a wealthy few, according to a new analysis from the Wisconsin Budget Project.
The Manufacturing and Agriculture Credit nearly wipes out state income tax liability for manufacturers and agricultural producers in Wisconsin. Only about three out of every thousand individual income tax filers receive this tax break, but in 2017 alone the credit will cost the state $299 million in reduced revenue. Looking ahead, the cost of the credit swells even more, ballooning to more than $650 million for the upcoming two-year budget period that starts in July 2017.
The cost of this tax cut has taken lawmakers by surprise. In fact, the credit is now estimated to cost more than double what lawmakers originally thought when the amendment creating the credit was quietly slipped into the 2011-13 budget bill.
Nearly all the value of the tax break goes to the very wealthy. Read more
Mediocre Revenue Projections Beat the Low Expectations
A modest upturn in the state revenue projections and a significant reduction in state spending estimates have created a much better outlook for the state budget.
Before elaborating on the latest numbers, which were released by the Legislative Fiscal Bureau (LFB) last week, I have to admit that the new state tax collection numbers are considerably better than I expected when I wrote a very cautionary blog post about the next state budget a week or so ago. This is one of two recent occasions (along with my prediction that the Packers would lose to Dallas) when I am very happy to have been wrong.
Although the new revenue forecasts are also significantly better than the Department of Revenue projected two months ago, they are nothing to brag about. In fact, the latest tax collection estimate for the current fiscal year is $281 million less than the estimate that the biennial budget bill was based on. Read more
Many Wisconsin low-income families miss out on their full tax refund because they do not claim tax credits for which they are eligible —particularly the Earned Income Tax Credit, the Homestead Tax Credit, and the federal child tax credit. Please help us get these flyers, which explain the eligibility for these credits, into the hands of low-income families who could benefit.
January 18th UPDATE: Sometimes it feels good to be wrong — like when the Packers outperform my pessimistic predictions and when new state revenue forecasts are stronger than I anticipated. So I’m very happy that the revised revenue projections released this afternoon by the Legislative Fiscal Bureau (LFB) are considerably better than I expected when I wrote our Jan. 17th blog post. (Read more here.)
The new LFB numbers indicate that a combination of lower-than-expected spending and higher-than-expected tax revenue will be enough to maintain a comfortable budget balance in the current fiscal year, and also enough to fund the amounts requested by state agencies in the next biennium. That’s a huge relief after the very slow revenue growth from July through November, which suggested that the next estimate of revenue collections was likely to be down, rather than up. This year’s revised revenue collections are still below the level forecasted a year ago, but are now expected to be considerably stronger in the next biennium than the Department of Administration estimated in November. Read more
Very Slow Tax Growth Suggests Budget Difficulties Ahead
New tax collection numbers that were released late on December 23 do not bode well for the Wisconsin budget. The November tax figures released by the Department of Revenue (DOR) late last Friday – a week after negative job numbers – suggest significant challenges ahead for state budget writers.
I’m not sure whether DOR released the tax collection data just a couple of hours before the Christmas break in order to avoid public notice, but if that was their plan it worked very well. There doesn’t seem to have been any media coverage of the new numbers. Read more
This Year’s Tax Collections Are Expected to be $351 Million below Original Estimate
A new state report about projected state revenue and the agency budget requests reinforces concerns that the upcoming 2017-19 Wisconsin budget will be another difficult one to balance. The primary problem is that tax revenue growth is well below the level anticipated when the budget bill was enacted in July 2015.
I’ll get to the specific numbers in a moment, but the bottom line is that the state’s large tax cuts, coupled with lower-than-anticipated job gains and revenue growth, mean that as state policymakers develop the next state budget they are going to have to either continue to squeeze spending or close some tax loopholes. Read more
The Combined Effects of Two New Budget Reports Create Significant Fiscal Challenges
New tax collection numbers released yesterday are the second dose of worrisome budget news in Wisconsin this week. Right on the heels of a report showing that the budget balance was well below the anticipated level after the close of the 2015-16 fiscal year, new tax collection figures reveal that revenue fell well short of the projected level during the first quarter of the current fiscal year.
Taken together, the two documents released this week indicate that it could be very challenging to finish the 2016-17 fiscal year in the black. Read more
Despite Delay in Debt Payments, Budget Remains Very Tight
An annual budget report issued yesterday has a little bit of good news for the state, but also disappointing news. The bottom line is that the state’s budget balance grew this year, but by less than the budget bill was counting on. As a result, it could be difficult to keep this year’s budget in the black if tax revenue continues to fall short of the expected level. [See the update below about the new tax collection figures.]
The new Annual Fiscal Report shows that Wisconsin finished the 2015-16 fiscal year with a balance of almost $314 million. Although that’s pretty good news, it’s also a bit disappointing because even though the balance grew by $87 million this year, the budget bill had assumed the state would have about $77 million more in its balance at the end of the 2015-16 fiscal year. Read more
Governor Walker has said he will include a back-to-school sales tax holiday in his proposed budget, a gimmick that would reduce the resources available to support Wisconsin’s schools, university system, and communities, without providing any real economic benefit.
The sales tax holiday would exempt purchases of school supplies, computers, and clothing from the sales tax for two days in August 2017 and again in August 2018. That change would cost the state an estimated $11 million a year in lost tax revenue.
A sales tax holiday would do little to boost consumer spending or give a tax break to Wisconsin families with low incomes. There are a whole host of downsides to a sales tax holiday, including:
- Instead of encouraging consumers to spend more money, sales tax holidays simply shift the timing of the spending;
- A sales tax holiday on back-to-school items involves lawmakers picking winners and losers among types of goods that are exempt from the sales tax; and
- Sales tax holidays are not an effective tool for giving a tax cut to individuals with low incomes, since a large amount of savings is given to people in higher income groups as well.