Revenue Collections Slightly Under Forecasted Levels for 2011
New state revenue collection figures for fiscal year 2011 were released today. The new figures from the Department of Revenue, which are still preliminary, are slightly shy of the amounts that had previously been forecasted for 2011.
In May 2011, the Legislative Fiscal Bureau predicted that the state would take in $12.924 billion in General Purpose Revenue (GPR) collections for fiscal year 2011. The actual collections, as indicated by the preliminary figures released today, were $12.912 billion. That’s 0.1 percent below the Fiscal Bureau’s earlier estimate, or roughly $13 million.
The reduced collections, although only slightly lower than the forecasted amount, have the potential to cause trouble down the road. That’s because the 2011-13 budget is very narrowly balanced, with a projected General Fund balance of only $9 million above the statutory reserve of $65 million at the end of fiscal year 2012.
Total GPR tax collections increased 6.4 percent in fiscal year 2011 compared to 2010, or by $780 million. By far the biggest component of that increase was the change in individual income taxes, which increased from $6.1 billion in 2010 to $6.7 billion in 2011, an increase of $611 million or 10.0 percent. Sales tax collections increased 2.3 percent between 2010 and 2011, and corporate income tax collections increased by 2.2 percent. Excise taxes (mostly on cigarettes) actually decreased, by 4.9 percent.